The Delphi Method

Here's a another method for trying to see into the future by the systematic pooling of insights and ideas from a group of experts. Developed by RAND in the 1950s. A good discussion is contained in this article on the future of netcrime. The idea, in essence, is to have structured questioning, anonymous responses (to let information and opinion flow freely), and a system of iteration and feedback. As Sheridan Morris of the UK Home Office puts it in the paper,

...a Delphi approach may also be combined with other futures techniques such as the use of scenarios. The Delphi technique may be found in areas where there is an absence of sufficient data and/or an incomplete theory on cause and effect in regard to the area under study. Sitting between knowledge and speculation, the outcome of the panel may be considered informed judgement.

This is an interesting idea...and not unlike some notions from physics. Even if complete and specific prediction is not possible, qualitative prediction may be possible.

of course, one might compare this with the various futures markets that pool information to make predictions, apparently with considerable accuracy.